Foot and Mouth Disease is one of the most highly transmissible of any livestock disease, and the 2001 epidemic in the UK demonstrated the potentially devastating impact of this infection. Using the high-resolution data set complied during the 2001 UK epidemic, modelling work has taken three different approaches: capturing the epidemic, optimal control methods, predicting FMD outside the UK.

Capturing the UK epidemic

Model Formulation

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Parameterisation

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Comparison between model and data

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Optimal Control

Culling

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Vaccination

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Predicting FMD elsewhere

Denmark

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U.S.A.

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Publications:

NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, MJ Tildesley, MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, SP Brooks, BT Grenfell (2007) Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 4, 235-241

MJ Tildesley, NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, SP Brooks, MEJ Woolhouse, BT Grenfell, MJ Keeling (2007) Veterinary epidemiology: Vaccination strategies for foot-and-mouth disease (reply). Nature 445, E12-E13

MJ Tildesley, NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, SP Brooks, MEJ Woolhouse, BT Grenfell, MJ Keeling (2006) Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature 440, 83-86  

NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, MJ Tildesley, MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, SP Brooks, BT Grenfell (2006) Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic. BMC Veterinary Research 2, art. no. 3

MJ Keeling (2005). Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 272, 1195-1202.

MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, RM May, G Davies, BT Grenfell (2003). Modelling Vaccination Strategies Against Foot-and-Mouth Disease. Nature 421, 136-142.

MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, DJ Shaw, L Matthews, M Chase-Topping, DT Haydon, SJ Cornell, J Kappey, J Wilesmith, BT Grenfell (2001). Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape. Science 294, 813-817.

M Woolhouse, M Chase-Topping, D Haydon, J Friar, L Matthews, G Hughes, D Shaw, J Wilesmith, A Donaldson, S Cornell (2001). Foot-and-mouth disease under control in the UK. Nature 414, 258-258.

Funded by:

NIH MIDAS

 

Wellcome Trust

 

People involved:
Matt Keeling
Mike Tildesley
Gary Smith (UPENN)
Mark Woolhouse (Edinburgh)
Nick Savill (Edinburgh)
Darren Shaw (Edinburgh)
Bryan Grenfell (Penn State)
Rob Deardon (Guelph)