99% of the Department of Economics' research has been rated world-leading (4*) or internationally excellent (3*) overall in the Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2021.

Ranked 2nd in the
Research Excellence Framework.

Discover our Research Impact

99% of the Department of Economics' research has been rated world-leading (4*) or internationally excellent (3*) overall in the Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2021.

The REF results, released on Thursday 12 May 2022, place the Department as 2nd in the UK for overall research quality in the discipline of Economics and Econometrics, according to rankings of institutions by Grade Point Average (GPA)* published by Times Higher Education. Submissions to the REF are made by institutions and assessed by subject-level expert panels in three key areas:

• The quality of research outputs in terms of their originality, significance and rigour (accounting for 60% of the overall outcome)
• The reach and significance of research impact beyond academia (25%)
• The vitality and sustainability of the environment that supports research (15%).

The weighting of these elements forms the overall quality profile. Each area is rated as 4*, 3*, 2*, 1* or unclassified.

Key highlights from REF 2021

Outputs

• The Department ranks 3rd in the UK for quality of research output in Economics and Econometrics, according to Times Higher Education.
• 98% of the Department’s submitted research outputs are rated 4* (world-leading) or 3* (internationally excellent).

Impact

• The Department ranks 2nd for impact in the UK.
• 80% of the Department’s impact is rated 4* (outstanding) and 20% is 3* (very considerable).

The assessment was based on the submission of impact case studies, which describe specific examples of how the Department’s research has made a positive difference to the economy, society and quality of life beyond academia.

Read more and watch short videos about the impact of our work.

Environment

• The Department ranks 3rd for research environment in the UK.
• 87.5% of the Department’s environment submission is rated 4* (conducive to producing research of world-leading quality and enabling outstanding impact).

The assessment considered a wide range of factors including:

• How research is structured in the Department
• Strategies for research, impact, staffing and staff development
• Research income, infrastructure and facilities
• Collaborations and contributions to the research base, economy and society.

Find out more about our research.

Learn more about our comprehensive MRes/PhD programme.

Commenting on the results, Head of Department Professor Jeremy Smith, said: “These results reinforce our position as one of the leading departments in the UK for economics.”

“Our strong performance in the REF reflects the incredibly hard work of staff from across the whole Department in conducting and supporting the production of innovative research that pushes the boundaries of the discipline. That this research is also shaping policy as indicated by the evaluation of the impact case studies is also very gratifying.”

“We are extremely proud of this achievement and look forward to building on our strategy for developing research excellence in the coming years.”

Professor Carlo Perroni, Research Director for the Department, said: “The Department of Economics at the University of Warwick is home to a vibrant and diverse research environment that produces relevant and exciting work across all major sub-fields of economics.”

“We are proud of our researchers and of our PhD students, and we are pleased that the REF result recognises the value of what we do.”

About the REF

The REF is the system for assessing the quality of research in UK higher education institutions. It is led by the four UK higher education funding bodies: Research England, the Scottish Funding Council, the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales, and the Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland.

REF results inform the allocation of public research funding and are used in university league tables and benchmarking. The process ensures accountability for public investment in research and provides evidence of the benefits of this investment.

Notes on rankings

*Grade Point Average (GPA) is a measure of average quality of research. It is calculated by multiplying the percentage of 4* research by four, 3* research by three, 2* research by two and 1* research by one. The totals are added together and divided by 100 to give an average overall star-rating.

Professor Caroline Elliott has taken up a prestigious role on the UK’s Regulatory Policy Committee (RPC), an independent body of experts which assesses the quality of evidence and analysis used to inform government regulatory proposals.

Since taking up her appointment in March she has already provided expert review on a range of policy issues including multiple drafts of a white paper, an impact assessment for proposed secondary legislation, and two post-implementation reviews.

Looking towards the future, Caroline said: “I hope that I’ll be able to make a difference by using my applied research knowledge and my academic skills on the impact assessments. We’re also going to start looking at policy options assessments and I’m excited to bring my knowledge to bear on the independent reviews.”

Caroline is continuing a tradition of Warwick economists contributing to the work of the committee – the position became vacant when Dr Jonathan Cave’s term of appointment came to an end. He is delighted that, after a rigorous selection process, the Committee chose to appoint another “proper card-carrying academic economist.”

Caroline said: “Jonathan sent me the advertisement for the role, and when I looked into the work of the committee, I thought it looked amazing. I teach industrial economics, regulation and competition policy and I always try and link my teaching to the real world - I never want to be criticised as being an ivory tower academic. Here was an opportunity to put my work into practice – to not just comment on the work of others, or the work of the government, but to be directly involved.

“As an economist, and as an academic economist, I believe there are two things I bring to the role. The first is my familiarity with academic literature and evidence. The second way in which I feel I’m contributing comes back to my academic training. As an academic, as an applied economist, you’re always looking for data. Sometimes you’re having to pull data together from different sources. And because I come from this background I can assist with this.”

Jonathan is delighted that Caroline has been appointed as his successor. “I think because I kept citing peer-reviewed literature in my Opinions and other interventions, trying to ensure that regulatory analysis made appropriate use of economic empirical methodologies and theoretical tools, including the use of real options analysis - I think they saw the value of having a replacement who is similarly positioned.”

Asked if he had any advice for Caroline, Jonathan said: “Don’t be afraid to challenge people and to be the voice within the committee resisting calls to compromise when that isn’t appropriate, by ensuring that the impacts of whatever regulations ministers wish to propose are rigorously assessed against real problems, but without being drawn into comments about whether the policies themselves are ‘right’ or ‘wrong’.

“I’d encourage her to be very actively engaged with the new government in a partnership based on a culture of evaluation and analysis and a mechanism design view of regulations and the regulatory process of which the RPC is a part. She should strive to remain committed to the concept and values of better regulation and work hard to make those concepts her own – in the committee, in her academic research and teaching and in leaving her mark on the better regulation framework itself.

“If you see how policies are made you can build better regulatory economics models. Regulation is not a matter of feeding a problem into a machine, turning a crank on a machine and ‘solving’ the problem – politics intervenes, economics intervenes, delays intervene, and the things you should be looking for are not always where they should be. For instance, we spent a lot of time worrying about how – or whether – to scrutinise the impacts when government threatens to regulate, business behaviour changes in anticipation and the regulation is abandoned. I think Caroline will find this useful in her academic work, and her teaching.”

Jonathan says that his decade as an RPC member was “fascinating” and saw many changes and developments. He worked hard to encourage the committee to avoid compromising or watering down its opinions for spurious reasons, arguing against “voices that felt we should temporise or give green ratings to things that did not merit them, for the fear that the political cost of refusing would be too high.” Rather than asking if each contested Bill was ‘the right hill to die on’, he tried to sit down with departments to negotiate where possible, and to publish Red opinions where important analytic principles or impacts were not properly acknowledged.

He also became adept at navigating changing political priorities: “I think the biggest lesson I had to learn along the way was how to sail in the direction of better regulation by tacking across a wind blowing from the deregulatory quarter.”

Jonathan also argued strongly for the committee to be allowed to give its opinions at an earlier stage in the policy process: “A few years ago, we only got to look at things when the bills were laid before Parliament, by which time all the decisions had been made. We commented, many times, on impact assessments that were more ex-post rationalisation than a formative influence on the creation of policy – which led to the most tendentious type of data-mining and the temptation to rely on ‘policy-driven evidence.’ Now the RPC is looking at things much earlier in the process, at the options assessment stage.”

In Jonathan’s experience, this particular challenge is not unique to the UK. He said: “I’m very pleased and proud about our international engagement with RegWatch Europe (a network of similar EU scrutiny bodies) our OECD counterpart and OIRA in the United States. I’ve worked closely with them over the years to share best practice and identify common problems, and there has been lot of progress made on this challenge of ex-ante assessment.

“Another challenge is the need to look back and evaluate regulations to see if they have done what they set out to do. I’ve had a long struggle to champion “post-implementation review” and I think we’ve made good progress. The UK is regarded as setting the world standard in this and we’ve been trying to maintain that. That’s been a really good thing.”

ENDS

Local artists, schoolchildren and their families in Radford, members of Coventry City Council and University of Warwick researchers have teamed up for a unique project to explore what puts people off making their homes more energy efficient.

Dr Lory Barile from the Department of Economics at the University worked with creative partners and experts in Net Zero to develop a series of lessons and practical activities for pupils at St. Augustine’s Catholic Primary School, Radford.

The children carried out science experiments to test out the insulation properties of different materials and built models of houses showing what they could do to make their homes more energy efficient to provide affordable warmth whilst helping to tackle global warming.

Parents and guardians then attended a showcase of their children’s work and their model houses. This provided a relaxed forum to discuss how homes can be better insulated, and what help is available from Coventry council for local residents.

Dr Barile explained: “Coventry has one of the highest levels of fuel poverty in the UK. In some areas of the city half of the households are in fuel poverty – that is, they need to spend at least 10% of their household income on keeping warm.

“If we can find more effective ways of speaking with residents about retrofit measures, we will make a big contribution to the success of Coventry’s net zero agenda.”

The objective of the project was to increase awareness of retrofit measures – such as double-glazing or cavity wall insulation - and to understand barriers to engagement with schemes designed to improve residents’ house energy efficiency.

Dr Barlie explained: “My project uses elements of a method called design thinking, and engages children in creative and interactive activities to help kick-start conversations with Radford’s adult householders.

“By embracing creativity, we hope that this pilot study will be a catalyst for change and inspire other residents in Coventry to increase their take up of government schemes aimed at creating healthy homes, reducing carbon emissions, energy bills, and fuel poverty.

“We also hope that the project will improve the way the council engages with the needs and aspirations of the local community.

“We are now working on creating an online teaching pack that all schools across the City will be able to use to raise the awareness of children and families about domestic energy efficiency.”

Bret Willers, Head of Sustainability & Climate Change at Coventry City Council said: “This pilot project has been very successful in raising people’s awareness as to how to better insulate their homes and how to access free funding to improve energy efficiency.

“We hope that this pilot will contribute to increase the take up of schemes available to households to meet the City’s commitment to tackling climate change and addressing fuel poverty.”

The workshops, facilitated by Warwick researchers, members of the Council, student ambassadors, teachers, and local artists, included an interactive workshop on energy conservation, 3D models of energy efficient homes, and a final celebratory event with adults engaged in discussions on barriers to housing retrofitting, where children’s work and learning was also showcased. Parents turnout was extremely high, highlighting the potential of using similar approaches to work with local communities and address the challenges of climate change.

The information gathered from these workshops has informed the development of a survey that has been distributed to all parents in the school and will guide future iterations of the methodology in areas of Coventry where engagement with retrofit measures is particularly low.

The survey is available here. Coventry residents are invited to fill it in and enter a draw for one of three £50 Love2shop vouchers.

Last week, a group of students and staff from the Department of Economics participated in a sensory awareness workshop to gain insights into what it feels like to have a disability.

Dr Juliana Carneiro, the Department’s Disability Coordinator and organiser of the workshop, gave an introduction about the importance of awareness of sensory perception and neurodiversity in our learning and working communities. She said:

“Being aware of how disabled people experience the world gives us a valuable insight into issues related to diversity within our society; it teaches us empathy, encourages inclusivity and helps us build a supportive environment for all members of our community. It is also a soft skill recognised and highly valued by employers in the job market.”

Several speakers were invited to contribute to the topic or tell their story of sensory perception, including:

• Dr Damien Homer, Head of Disability Services who talked about different types of assistance available to Warwick’s students.
• Diana Shore, Assistant Professor, WMG - shared her own experience as a person with a disability which is not always visible to those around her. Diana invited the audience to participate in a role play: Juliana interviewed Diana while fidgeting and making noises, to show the audience the challenges a person with hearing impairment must overcome.
• Nivaria Morales Salas, IT Developer in the Department of Economics, explained in her talk about different categories of visual impairment and shared her own experience as a person with disability.
• Martyn Parker, Community Engagement Officer for Warwickshire Vision came with his guide dog Harper who stole the limelight! Martyn shared his experience of visual impairment and interacted with students walking them through obstacles while they were wearing an eye band.

The participants engaged with a number of other hands-on activities to have a taste of the diversity of sensory perception experienced by people within our community, including the use of a wheelchair.

Nivaria Morales Salas commented about the event:

“It’s great to see events like this being organised on campus. They raise awareness of the reality of living with a disability as well as showing that disabled people make a positive contribution to society despite facing daily challenges.”

Economics student
Kush Majithia
trying one of
the activities

More than 20 students and 6 members of staff benefitted from attending the event, fully engaging in the activities and role play and raising their knowledge and understanding of studying, working, and living with diverse people.

Dr Carneiro wishes to thank her colleagues who supported her in organising the event: Claire Johnson, Student Engagement and Experience Coordinator and Tina MacSkimming, Student Support and Progression Officer from the Department of Economics.

Dr Carneiro is also grateful to the sponsors of the event - Professor Rebecca Freeman, Director of the Dean of Student Office, and Professor Lorenzo Frigerio, Pro-Vice Chancellor (Education) - for their support of the Department's Inclusive Education Action Plan.

Related content

Wellbeing and Student Support at Warwick:

• Information for Disabled Students 
• Staff and Student Wellbeing guidelines
• Self-help Resources

Two members of the Department are taking on leadership roles in the University’s Research Spotlight programme, a new programme designed to promote collaborative work on urgent global challenges.

Professor Daniel Sgroi has been appointed Chair of the new interdisciplinary Behaviour Spotlight, and Professor Thijs van Rens is a member of the leadership team for the Health Spotlight.

A total of six interdisciplinary ‘Research Spotlights’ have been created. Each of them identifies a major global challenge: “They are all serious interdisciplinary areas that are going to make a big difference,” Daniel explains. “The University has asked, ‘what are the big issues facing the world?’ and decided to put a spotlight on each of them and bring people from every department together to work on them.

“This is important because most of the world’s big problems are problems that can only really be solved by disciplines working together – for example, how we deal with climate change, how we tackle political polarisation, how we handle pandemics.

“We know from COVID that medics worked with behavioural scientists so that they didn’t just develop vaccines, they developed strategies to ensure people would take them.

“Our Behaviour Spotlight aims to facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration between behavioural researchers that seek to understand and address some of the biggest problems faced by the world today.

“We can provide seed funding for pilot experiments or to kick-start projects, we can create and financially support new seminar series, workshops and conferences, and help fund early-stage research.

“We have a big network already, inherited from the Behaviour, Brain & Society GRP, but we now want to reach across the whole university. We’ll be inviting anyone doing behavioural research at Warwick to join us as part of our mission to build a university-wide network of active researchers.”

A new Health Spotlight has also been created. Professor Thijs van Rens is one of four academics on the leadership team. He said:

"There are many people at University working on research that is relevant to health, at Warwick Medical School, of course, but also in Business, Chemistry, Economics, Engineering, English, History, Mathematics, Physics, Psychology, Statistics and probably other departments as well.

“Our aim is to build the network and infrastructure to bring these people together so that together we can make better progress on the big questions that cannot be addressed from a single discipline.

“Some of the interdisciplinary areas that we will focus on are technologies in health, prevention and public health, mental health and wellbeing, and interdisciplinary methodologies. Warwick has strengths in all of these areas, and we hope that by providing a supportive environment for collaboration, we can further build on these strengths and encourage ‘blue-skies’ research ideas.”

“My own research on healthy and sustainable diets has made me realise how the quality of the research can benefit from an interdisciplinary team, and how much it helps to secure funding for that research."

Professor Ben Lockwood, Head of the Economics Department, said “I am delighted that Daniel and Thijs have been appointed to these leadership roles and will be contributing to the University’s ambitious interdisciplinary research programme.”

The Spotlight programme is intended to run for at least 10 years and is an indication of the University’s long-term commitment to world-changing research.

 FIND OUT MORE

• Behaviour Spotlight : Behaviour | Research at Warwick
• Health Spotlight: Health | Research at Warwick

BSc in Economics is a typical pathway for anybody wishing to become an economist, but there are other ways to achieve this career goal, even if you don’t have a first degree in economics. We caught up with a former student of the Department of Economics, who had chosen a different route to become an economist and a successful entrepreneur. Meet Aman Bhardwaj whose first degree is in Computer Science, followed by the Warwick Economics Diploma plus the MSc Economics completed in 2016.

Aman is an Investment Manager and Mergers & Acquisitions Advisor with extensive experience of mergers and acquisitions, credit analysis and portfolio management. He is also a successful entrepreneur involved in three companies: Pinksalt PartnersLink opens in a new window, as a Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer; Future BricksLink opens in a new window, as their CEO; and, Head of dns Corporate AdvisoryLink opens in a new window.

Having completed his first degree in computer science with a first-class honours in 2012, Aman worked as a Systems Engineer for Infosys in India. In 2014 he enrolled on a conversion course to become an economist – the Warwick’s Diploma Plus MSc Economics which he completed in 2016.

Soon after graduating from Warwick Aman worked for dns Accountants as Head of Corporate Advisory Services advising small and medium businesses in the area of mergers and acquisitions. In 2020, Aman co-founded Pinksalt Partners, a private equity venture focusing on investing in accounting businesses in the UK. In 2023 Aman became the CEO of Future Bricks, a tech-driven funding platform for small & medium-sized housebuilders within the UK and backed by corporate and individual investors.

We asked Aman about his career journey to date:

Your first degree was in Computer Science, but in 2014 you enrolled on a conversion course – Diploma in Economics plus MSc. What made you decide on this career path to become an economist?

Growing up in post-1991 India, when the economy was liberalised, I witnessed the economic transformation around me without fully understanding the underlying causes. As I grew older and travelled more, I realised that growth was not distributed equitably across the country, and I asked myself why and how this could be addressed. My curiosity to find answers led me on my journey to study economics. My first exploratory step was a six-week summer school at LSE, where I studied Microeconomics and Macroeconomics, which only made me more intrigued, and I decided to return to the UK for my Master's degree.

The two-year MSc Economics programme at Warwick proved an ideal fit. It enabled a seamless transition from my computer science background to an economics degree, and I found the experience highly rewarding.

What specific modules on the Diploma plus MSc Economics course did you enjoy most and why?

In my first year, I thoroughly enjoyed Development Economics (Macro). This course offered a historical perspective on the divergence of nations' fortunes across the world, highlighting the crucial role of 'institutions' in this context. This course laid the foundation for my MSc dissertation and provided a fundamental understanding of why some countries prosper while others remain poor. In my second year, I loved Public Finance, and Public Policy in Developing Countries. These courses presented contrasting challenges faced by policymakers in developed and developing countries, with the latter's topics being particularly relatable.

How did you find out about our unique Diploma plus MSc Economics course?

When I decided to pursue a Master's degree in economics, I realised I needed a bridge to cross over from my computer science background. That's when I discovered Warwick's Diploma plus MSc Economics programme - it was the perfect fit! I didn't just rely on university rankings (although Warwick's Department of Economics consistently tops the charts!). I also reached out to students who had walked the same path before me. And when I had questions during the application process, the admissions team was super responsive and helpful.

What economics research did you undertake for your MSc dissertation?

My research curiosity for my dissertation was shaped in the first year's Development Economics module. I explored how a country’s population's education level attainment influences its economic prospects, both directly and by improving the quality of ‘institutions’. I found that 'Institutions Matter, So Does Human Capital', which became the title of my dissertation. Professor Sascha Becker was very helpful as my dissertation supervisor.

You are a Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Pinksalt Partners, a private equity venture. When did you become interested in private equity and what’s your current involvement with this company?

In the early days, I was involved in structuring smaller deals with a limited number of private investors - I truly liked it. And when these investments yielded promising returns for investors within a few years, the feeling was not only rewarding but also empowering.

As CIO at Pinksalt Partners, where we invest in accounting businesses across the UK, my responsibilities include deal origination, negotiations, fundraising, investor relations, and selecting the right leaders for our portfolio businesses. What sets us apart from other private equity firms is our people-centric approach to decision-making, prioritising the needs of clients, teams, and vendors alike. This means we retain the existing teams and vendors, and further invest in upskilling them, which I find particularly rewarding.

How did you become the CEO of Future Bricks? What’s the most interesting aspect of this job?

I recently became CEO of FutureBricks following our acquisition. The UK is still grappling with a significant housing shortage, which is partly down to small and medium-sized property developers struggling to secure development finance. FutureBricks is tackling this challenge by streamlining the funding process, making it more efficient and rapid. Additionally, we're democratising development funding by enabling individuals and small business owners to invest directly in projects. It's thrilling to lead a team that's making a meaningful impact on this critical national issue.

What economics skills do you value most and why?

In my opinion, the most valuable economics skills are those that enhance critical thinking, strategic decision-making, and effective negotiation. The distinction between co-relation and causation has shaped my thinking in everyday life.

In recent years, I am more involved in deal making where game theory and behavioural economics lessons do come very handy. I always found concept of loss-aversion quite fascinating, and awareness of this concept helps during negotiations.

My MSc programme had a strong focus on macroeconomics, and I selected Public Finance and Monetary Economics as my optional modules, in addition to Advanced Macroeconomics. This training enables me to make informed decisions about future interest rate movements, which is critical to my investment decisions.

What advice would you give to someone considering choosing your path to becoming an economist?

I believe economics training primarily focuses on teaching you how to think about the practical aspects of life. Once you're equipped with this mindset, you can apply it across various fields. A degree in economics offers a broader range of career options compared to any other field of study. So go for it.

Two years at Warwick had a profound impact on my life. It shaped my thinking, taught me concepts of economics, and brought the most incredible people in my life and introduced me to other cultures. Living on campus in my first year and cycling to and from Kenilworth in my second year was enjoyable. I highly recommend Warwick to anyone considering studying economics - it's an exceptional institution.

Related content

If you’re interested in our Diploma + MSc EconomicsLink opens in a new window, please visit the programme’s webpage and get in touch with us via email - economics dot pgoffice at warwick dot ac dot uk

A new research project launched today by a partnership including the University of Warwick will explore how shoppers can be encouraged to make more sustainable food choices while they do their online shopping.

The online shopping project is part of the SALIENT food trials, a consortium of eight universities and two research institutes looking at ways to support healthier eating and reduce the impact of food on the planet, funded by the UK government through the ESRC.

The trial is facilitated by a web browser extension for the online grocery platform of a major UK supermarket, which will pull information from a database of over 14,000 ‘life cycle assessments’ for the available products compiled by food sustainability experts Sustained.

Up to 2750 UK shoppers will be recruited to take part in up to five waves. They will be invited to download a plug-in for their internet browser which will provide two sorts of nudges to help guide their purchases:-

• Eco-labelling: these will inform online shoppers about the environmental footprint of their food choices, using an A (least impact) to G (most impact) rating system.
• Product Swaps: shoppers may be shown products with a lower environmental impact and equal or better nutritional profile, in place of their initial choices. These may also be made available at a discount to test the effect of lower prices on purchase decisions.

The researchers will evaluate the impact of these interventions on the environmental rating of consumers’ shopping baskets, to understand whether either intervention results in more sustainable shopping habits and by how much.

Professor Thijs van Rens, co-lead of the Sustained trial, said: “Offering swaps and price discounts are promising ways to get people to buy more sustainable foods, which are often better for their health too. But we have very little evidence for how effective these interventions are, particularly for online grocery shopping.

“Previous research has mostly focused on physical supermarkets or on simulated online supermarkets. But we know that people often make quite different choices in real life than in simulated environments.

“Our collaboration with Sustained will provide a great opportunity to generate real life data which we can analyse in order to recommend policies with the best chance of changing behaviour in a positive way.”

Professor Oyinlola Oyebode, also co-lead of the research trial, said: “Climate change and environmental degradation are important and serious challenges for human health. Changing the food we produce, buy and eat can help to address this, and more sustainable food often offers direct benefits for health too.”

Carl Oliver, Sustained CEO, said: “Empowering more sustainable purchasing choices is part of the journey to reducing the massive impact the global food system has on the environment.

“This trial is also about understanding how industry and policy makers can utilise technology partners like Sustained to shape a food system that supports the health of us and our planet.

“This is an exciting partnership for Sustained as we work towards our vision of helping consumers and businesses reduce their environmental impact through actionable intelligence and collaboration.”

About SALIENT: SALIENT is a team of researchers working with the public, partners from local and national government, food charities, community support teams, and the food industry, with the goal of designing interventions to support healthier eating and reduce the impact of food on the planet. The SALIENT consortium is drawn from eight universities (Oxford, Cambridge, Warwick, Birmingham, Hertfordshire, Liverpool, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and Queen Mary University of London) and two research institutes (Nesta and the Behavioural Insights Team). https://www.salientfoodtrials.uk/

Delegating tax-and-spend powers to local government risks limiting the ability of local authorities to respond to environmental disasters, according to new research published in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.

Dr Jose Rowell Corpuz (University of Warwick), Professor Joseph Capuno (University of the Philippines Diliman) and Dr Samuel Lordemus (University of Lucerne) looked at 10 years of public finance data from the Philippines both before and after a national emergency in 2013, when Typhoon Haiyan struck the islands with 200mph winds, to explore how local public finances respond to natural disasters.

The researchers also looked for evidence of how central government disaster relief funds and international aid affected local revenue raising and spending on essential services – did the external aid compensate for lower local revenues, or was it genuinely additional to existing resources?

While these questions have been studied in better-off countries, it is believed that this study substantially adds to the analysis of the local fiscal response to natural disasters in a country with more limited financial resources.

The Philippines is in a high-risk typhoon area, and Typhoon Haiyan was one of the strongest ever recorded and caused unprecedented damage as it crossed the country. Official government sources estimate that about 6,300 people died, more than 28,000 were injured and 4 million left homeless.

It displaced communities and affected the regions' infrastructure, roads, hospitals, schools, and public services. The severity of the impact on the areas it ravaged was unanticipated and unprecedented, with its effects felt during and after the disaster.

Using data on local government revenue and spending from before and after Typhoon Haiyan, Dr Corpuz and his co-authors found:

• The typhoon had a small impact on local government revenue raising. In the short term there was a fall in income from taxes and charges on local businesses but these recovered after around two years. This effect was more severe in less-well-off municipalities and highlights the importance of flexible central government support to address economic inequality.
• The typhoon had a small but measurable impact on spending. Local governments spent slightly less on all areas of responsibility except health, housing and labour. They also reduced their debt repayments.
• Local governments which received external aid did not diminish their tax collection efforts and spent more on public services, education, social and economic services, and debt repayments. This result shows that foreign aid has a vital role to play in supporting local government to help citizens in the aftermath of disasters.

Commenting on his research Dr Corpuz said:

“The effects of natural disasters can have a huge impact on a local economy and under decentralisation, local governments are limited in the resources they can mobilise in the aftermath.

“Ordinarily, local tax revenue collection provides a higher rate of local government spending over and above central government transfers. This changes after a natural disaster when there are significant losses in revenues particularly from local businesses and economic enterprise.

“When a typhoon as powerful as Haiyan affects the generating revenue capacity of local governments, central government transfers and foreign aid are crucial to maintaining public expenditures that benefit its people.”

Specifically, the research evidence suggests:

• Local governments exposed to common nationwide shocks such as Typhoon Haiyan have limited capacity to reallocate or provide additional resources that would address the increased demand for local public spending.
• Lack of strong and responsive financial support from central government leaves local governments to fend for themselves. This situation only escalates the impact of external shocks.
• Central government needs to step in with additional sources of funding for disaster relief and ensure a coordinated effort with other funding sources (such as foreign aid) to effectively target the most vulnerable communities.

Dr Corpuz concludes:

“Although we cannot generalize, the Philippine case is a reminder of natural disasters’ debilitating effect on local governments and vulnerable communities. We hope that our study will inspire many in ensuring a well-coordinated disaster risk management by central and local governments, particularly in settings of decentralised local government finance.”

Read the full research paper: Natural disasters and local government finance: Evidence from Typhoon Haiyan

Professor Giovanni Ricco has received a prestigious American Economic Journal Best Paper 2024 AwardLink opens in a new window for a paper published in the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

The awards are made annually to the best paper published in each of the four American Economic Journals – Applied Economics, Macroeconomics, Economic Policy and Microeconomics - in the previous three years.  The winning papers are chosen by the journals’ Boards of Editors from those nominated by AEA members.

Professor Ricco’s paper was published in 2021 and is co-authored with Professor Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Research Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco study widely used instruments for the identification of monetary policy disturbances, show how the use of these instruments is behind the empirical puzzles reported in the literature, and propose a new high-frequency instrument for monetary policy shocks that accounts for informational rigidities.

Commenting on his award, Professor Ricco said it was a complete surprise but a very welcome one.

Head of Department Ben Lockwood said: “On behalf of all in Warwick Economics I’d like to congratulate Giovanni on his ‘best paper’ award. It is a significant achievement for him personally and an important accolade for the Department."

• The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2021, 13(3): 74–107. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180124
• Full text versions of the four winning articles are available at https://www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/honors-awards/aej-best-papersLink opens in a new window.

Historical experience of battles fought with physically-demanding weapons created a preference for sons over daughters which persists to the present day, according to new research.

India’s population is disproportionately male compared to global norms. A preference for sons over daughters has resulted in some 63 million women “missing” from the population. While Amartya Sen drew attention to these “missing women” in the early 1990s, this deficit was recognized as early as the 1881 census.

While mechanisms such as sex-selective abortion and prioritising male children over female children can explain the imbalance, what is it that creates the preference for male children in the first place?

In a new Warwick Economics Research Papers (WERP) working paper, Conflict and Gender Norms, Mark Dincecco, James Fenske, Bishnupriya Gupta, and Anil Menon investigate whether exposure to conflict in India’s pre-colonial era, when battles were fought with physically demanding weapons such as bows and swords, created a preference for male children which still endures today.

The team geolocated battles and other conflicts between 1000 CE and 1757, when the Battle of Plassey established the dominance of the British East India Company, to create a measure of a location’s exposure to pre-colonial conflict.

This measure was compared to three measures of male-favouring gender norms: the sex ratio of the population; data on the sex of individual births; and the prevalence of crimes against women in early 21^st century.

The analysis found a robust positive relationship between conflict and male-favouring norms: districts that experienced greater exposure to pre-colonial conflict have more male-based sex ratios in the present-day population; and have a greater number of crimes against women.

But how is it possible for experiences from centuries ago to influence attitudes towards women today?

Folk tales and religious traditions can pass on cultural beliefs around gender norms and hand them down through generations. In Uttar Pradesh, researchers have recorded a number of folk songs denigrating the birth of a girl child and the women who birth them, for example:

“She gave birth to a male child – that’s why she is sitting on the bed: she is giving orders to everyone in the house.

If she had given birth to a female child, she would be sitting on the doorsill; she would have fallen from everyone’s eyes.”

Traditional songs in the eastern and southwestern areas of India are much less negative about women.

The researchers found positive relationships between exposure to conflict and folk tales with negative attitudes to women and exposure to conflict and a higher proportion of male temple gods; and exposure to conflict and a greater chance that women leave their home villages after marriage.

To test whether gender norms endure even if people migrate, the authors repeated the analysis using individuals’ mother tongue rather than geographic location, as the major languages of India typically reflect ancestry in specific regions. This analysis showed that male-favouring gender norms persist even after migration to areas that do not have historic exposure to conflict.

Commenting on the findings Professor Gupta said:

“Male-favouring gender norms are prevalent in many parts of the world today. They persist in India despite its recent economic growth, which is generally regarded as something which leads to more positive outcomes for women.

Our study provides new insights into the origins of these attitudes, focusing on the role of inter-state military rivalry and warfare.

The relationship which we have documented between exposure to conflict in pre-colonial times and cultural norms that favour men helps to explain why there is such variation in the proportion of missing women between different parts of India.

The evidence which we have found on the historical persistence of these attitudes also suggests that economic development alone may not resolve India’s gender inequality challenges.”

ENDS

· Mark Dincecco, James Fenske, Bishnupriya Gupta and Anil Menon (2024) Conflict and Gender NormsLink opens in a new window Warwick Economics Research Papers No. 1491